With a UK election date now set for 12 December, headlines about opinion polls are coming thick and fast. However, recent elections have important lessons for. Election Vote Intention (Great Britain). Field work dates: 28 March - 22 May Data from: United Kingdom, Great Britain Results from: 35 polls. DOI: /S Printed in the United Kingdom of the Deliberative Poll questionnaire; in the British General Election Deliberative Poll of.
UK opinion polls: proceed with cautionThe UK is heading for its third election in four years. the large number of undecided voters – and the poor track record of polls ahead of recent UK elections. The forthcoming UK election remains hard to call, despite polls indicating a clear Tory majority. This is partly because recent experience tells us that the polls. With a UK election date now set for 12 December, headlines about opinion polls are coming thick and fast. However, recent elections have important lessons for.
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James actually identified several groups of these seats — some in Wales, some in County Durham, and a big swathe of them across urban Lancashire and Yorkshire that looked like a red wall.
Hence the name. Sefton, for example, is largely affluent suburbia, with some of the highest home-ownership rates in the country. One can debate the reasons for this dislike, but the most obvious explanations are historical: the identity as former mining communities, the legacy and memory of Thatcherism and the dismantling of industry in the North in the s.
Skipping ahead, we know that the Conservatives did manage to do this in many areas in and In fact in many of these areas there has been an incredible sea-change in voting behavior.
Across the two elections the Conservatives have made gains there that would have looked unbelievable ten years ago. There are different explanations one can come up with for what happened.
Part of it was probably the disruptive effect Brexit had upon traditional party ties, part of it perhaps a general change to the way the Conservative party has presented itself and its message.
Much will simply be to the passage of time — those old mining identities can only sustain for so long once the mines have closed, the miners have passed on, the old sites regenerated and replaced by new build housing estates.
Here is where it gets complicated, and why one should be cautious about throwing all those gains in together. Lewis Baston has written about this well previously.
Some of them were in perennial marginals — places like Darlington, Stockton South, Keighley or Lincoln that have been competitive for decades and just happen to be in the North or the Midlands.
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The table above includes the latest UK or British voting intention poll from each of the currently active reputable pollsters. Anthony Wells explains here in more detail what this margin of error calculation means, and why it does not strictly apply to modern polls.
Based on the historic record of polls, the British Polling Council requires its members to use this explanation of the margin of error:.
All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. To put the voting intention numbers above into longer context, take a look at PollBase, my database of general election voting intention figures from opinion polls going back to It is updated quarterly.
UK Polling Report. Retrieved 9 December Early Parliamentary General Election Act England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales.
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